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If Kyren Williams is out, who gets his targets?
The Los Angeles Rams room absorbs +0.64 receptions, and Blake Corum takes the largest single share at +0.49. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua WR · 70% snaps | 6.10 | 6.10 | +0.00 |
| Davante Adams WR · 67% snaps | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.00 |
| Kyren Williams RB · 63% snaps | 3.00 | — | OUT |
| Tyler Higbee TE · 39% snaps | 2.60 | 2.64 | +0.04 |
| Colby Parkinson TE · 64% snaps | 2.10 | 2.13 | +0.03 |
| Konata Mumpfield WR · 56% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Terrance Ferguson TE · 45% snaps | 1.70 | 1.74 | +0.04 |
| Davis Allen TE · 41% snaps | 1.60 | 1.64 | +0.04 |
| Blake Corum RB · 32% snaps | 1.20 | 1.69 | +0.49 |
| Xavier Smith WR · 37% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Kyren Williams’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection