DK Metcalf

Pittsburgh Steelers · Wide receiverWR1

Over 16 games last season DK Metcalf averaged 3.8 receptions and 56 yards on 87% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.9

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

26%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.9 projected
26 wk3	CIN	95%	16.1%	5	3	31	0	0	1	4.1 -1.1
26 wk2	NE	97%	24.3%	9	4	27	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	ATL	96%	27.0%	10	4	40	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	HOU	86%	16.1%	5	2	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	DET	88%	23.7%	9	4	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	MIA	79%	11.1%	3	3	55	0	0	1	—
25 wk14	BAL	83%	36.4%	12	7	148	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	BUF	86%	22.7%	5	3	32	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	CHI	85%	25.8%	8	5	22	2	12	1	—
25 wk11	CIN	86%	27.6%	8	5	49	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 18	89%
5+ receptions	5 of 18	28%
7+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 18	39%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
100+ receiving yards	2 of 18	11%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 18	39%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.7	32.7	8.0	1	96%	22.5%
2025	16	3.8	55.8	6.5	7	87%	22.0%
2024	15	4.4	66.1	7.2	5	86%	20.8%
2023	16	4.1	69.6	7.4	8	84%	22.5%
2022	18	5.6	65.8	8.6	8	83%	26.0%
2021	17	4.4	56.9	7.6	12	84%	27.7%
2020	17	5.2	82.3	8.2	12	92%	25.7%
2019	18	3.8	62.2	6.3	8	85%	20.9%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If DK Metcalf sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PIT room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4