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If DK Metcalf is out, who gets his targets?
The Pittsburgh Steelers room absorbs +3.67 receptions, and Michael Pittman takes the largest single share at +0.78. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf WR · 96% snaps | 3.90 | — | OUT |
| Jaylen Warren RB · 66% snaps | 3.40 | 3.53 | +0.13 |
| Michael Pittman WR · 80% snaps | 3.30 | 4.08 | +0.78 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE · 66% snaps | 3.20 | 3.35 | +0.15 |
| Darnell Washington TE · 64% snaps | 2.40 | 2.55 | +0.15 |
| Roman Wilson WR · 58% snaps | 2.30 | 3.04 | +0.74 |
| Germie Bernard WR · 37% snaps | 1.90 | 2.65 | +0.75 |
| Rico Dowdle RB · 42% snaps | 1.60 | 1.73 | +0.13 |
| Ben Skowronek WR · 20% snaps | 0.70 | 1.41 | +0.71 |
| Lew Nichols III RB · 5% snaps | 0.50 | 0.63 | +0.13 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
DK Metcalf’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection