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Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a committee. DK Metcalf holds 22.5% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 241 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf WR1 | 96% | 22.5% | 3.9 | 57 | who benefits |
| Roman Wilson WR2 | 58% | 17.3% | 2.3 | 32 | who benefits |
| Michael Pittman WR3 | 80% | 12.1% | 3.3 | 38 | — |
| Germie Bernard WR depth | 37% | 8.3% | 1.9 | 18 | — |
| Ben Skowronek WR depth | 20% | 3.0% | 0.7 | 10 | — |
| Kaden Wetjen WR depth | 0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 1 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth TE1 | 66% | 13.3% | 3.2 | 27 | who benefits |
| Darnell Washington TE2 | 64% | 7.9% | 2.3 | 21 | who benefits |
| Robert Tonyan TE3 | 4% | 1.1% | 0.1 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren RB1 | 66% | 13.3% | 3.3 | 25 | who benefits |
| Rico Dowdle RB2 | 42% | 9.5% | 1.5 | 15 | who benefits |
| Eli Heidenreich RB depth | 4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | -1 | — |
| Lew Nichols III RB depth | 5% | 0.0% | 0.5 | -1 | — |
| Travis Homer RB3 | 4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 22 carries and 89 rushing yards, with Jaylen Warren taking 58% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren RB | 12.5 | 58 | 4.66 | 19% |
| Rico Dowdle RB | 9.1 | 31 | 3.36 | 16% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.