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If Roman Wilson is out, who gets his targets?

The Pittsburgh Steelers room absorbs +0.92 receptions, and DK Metcalf takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Roman Wilson sitsDK Metcalf+0.2WR 96% snapsMichael Pittman+0.2WR 80% snapsGermie Bernard+0.2WR 37% snapsBen Skowronek+0.2WR 20% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
DK Metcalf WR · 96% snaps3.904.13+0.23
Jaylen Warren RB · 66% snaps3.303.30+0.00
Michael Pittman WR · 80% snaps3.303.53+0.23
Pat Freiermuth TE · 66% snaps3.203.20+0.00
Darnell Washington TE · 64% snaps2.302.30+0.00
Roman Wilson WR · 58% snaps2.30—OUT
Germie Bernard WR · 37% snaps1.902.13+0.23
Rico Dowdle RB · 42% snaps1.501.50+0.00
Ben Skowronek WR · 20% snaps0.700.93+0.23
Lew Nichols III RB · 5% snaps0.500.50+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Roman Wilson’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4