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Roman Wilson

Pittsburgh Steelers · Wide receiverWR2

Over 13 games last season Roman Wilson averaged 0.9 receptions and 13 yards on 33% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.3
1.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
21%
third-down role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

15%024%123%217%310%46%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.3 projected
26 wk3CIN39%19.4%636012.4 +0.6
26 wk2NE79%16.2%65280—
26 wk1ATL55%16.2%63260—
25 wk17CLE14%0.0%0000—
25 wk13BUF44%4.5%1000—
25 wk12CHI28%9.7%3000—
25 wk11CIN57%6.9%21170—
25 wk10LAC35%10.7%32351—
25 wk9IND47%5.7%2140—
25 wk8GB46%15.6%54741—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 1520%
5+ receptions1 of 157%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards1 of 157%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1513%

Career by season

Roman Wilson: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.738.06.0158%17.3%
2025130.912.81.6233%5.3%
202410.00.00.007%0.0%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Roman Wilson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PIT room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4