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Robert Tonyan

Pittsburgh Steelers · Tight endTE3

Over 16 games last season Robert Tonyan averaged 0.1 receptions and 0 yards on 12% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.1
0.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-0
Anytime TD
8%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

96%012345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 0 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.1 projected
26 wk3CIN6%3.2%11200.1 +0.9
26 wk2NE3%0.0%0000—
26 wk1ATL3%0.0%0000—
25 wk18LV3%0.0%0000—
25 wk16TEN4%0.0%0000—
25 wk15LAC5%0.0%0000—
25 wk14HOU6%0.0%0000—
25 wk13DAL11%0.0%0000—
25 wk12IND17%0.0%0000—
25 wk11DEN11%2.3%1110—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 180%
5+ receptions0 of 180%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards0 of 180%
75+ receiving yards0 of 180%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown0 of 180%

Career by season

Robert Tonyan: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.30.70.304%1.1%
2025160.10.10.1012%0.1%
202450.00.00.005%0.0%
2023170.66.61.0028%3.6%
2022173.127.63.9254%12.0%
202182.225.53.6260%11.6%
2020183.337.13.71262%11.6%
2019130.87.71.2126%3.4%
2018110.47.00.519%1.5%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4