Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers · Tight endTE1

Over 18 games last season Pat Freiermuth averaged 2.3 receptions and 28 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.2

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

21%

red-zone role (+0.07)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.2 projected
26 wk3	CIN	60%	12.9%	4	2	30	1	1	0	3.1 -1.1
26 wk2	NE	66%	13.5%	5	4	32	1	2	0	—
26 wk1	ATL	73%	13.5%	5	5	46	0	0	1	—
25 wk19	HOU	68%	9.7%	3	1	18	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	BAL	69%	11.4%	5	3	51	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	CLE	70%	13.5%	5	3	63	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	DET	43%	10.5%	4	4	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	MIA	42%	18.5%	5	3	45	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	BAL	60%	9.1%	3	2	9	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	BUF	40%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	13 of 20	65%
5+ receptions	2 of 20	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 20	15%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 20	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.7	36.0	4.7	1	66%	13.3%
2025	18	2.3	28.0	3.2	4	51%	9.9%
2024	18	3.8	37.1	4.6	7	69%	16.9%
2023	13	2.8	29.5	4.2	2	64%	14.2%
2022	16	3.9	45.8	6.1	2	68%	18.9%
2021	17	3.8	30.7	4.9	7	61%	12.9%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Pat Freiermuth sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PIT room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4