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If Pat Freiermuth is out, who gets his targets?
The Pittsburgh Steelers room absorbs +0.91 receptions, and Darnell Washington takes the largest single share at +0.56. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf WR · 96% snaps | 3.90 | 3.97 | +0.07 |
| Jaylen Warren RB · 66% snaps | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Michael Pittman WR · 80% snaps | 3.30 | 3.37 | +0.07 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE · 66% snaps | 3.20 | — | OUT |
| Roman Wilson WR · 58% snaps | 2.30 | 2.37 | +0.07 |
| Darnell Washington TE · 64% snaps | 2.30 | 2.86 | +0.56 |
| Germie Bernard WR · 37% snaps | 1.90 | 1.97 | +0.07 |
| Rico Dowdle RB · 42% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Ben Skowronek WR · 20% snaps | 0.70 | 0.77 | +0.07 |
| Lew Nichols III RB · 5% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Pat Freiermuth’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection