Over 16 games last season Darnell Washington averaged 1.9 receptions and 23 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.3 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
2.3
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
21
Anytime TD
13%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.3 projected
26 wk3
CIN
76%
12.9%
4
3
67
0
2.0 +1.0
26 wk2
NE
53%
5.4%
2
1
7
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
64%
5.4%
2
2
18
0
—
25 wk17
CLE
14%
5.4%
2
2
15
0
—
25 wk16
DET
68%
10.5%
4
3
36
0
—
25 wk15
MIA
73%
14.8%
4
3
25
0
—
25 wk14
BAL
29%
3.0%
1
1
12
0
—
25 wk13
BUF
79%
18.2%
4
2
45
0
—
25 wk12
CHI
68%
6.5%
2
2
22
0
—
25 wk11
CIN
71%
17.2%
5
4
67
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 18
39%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.0
30.7
2.7
0
64%
7.9%
2025
16
1.9
22.8
2.7
1
57%
9.1%
2024
18
1.1
11.6
1.6
1
51%
5.8%
2023
18
0.4
3.4
0.6
0
47%
2.1%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016