Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh Steelers · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Jaylen Warren averaged 2.4 receptions and 20 yards on 50% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.3

0.9 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

12.5

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

19%

red-zone role (+0.07)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.3 projected
26 wk3	CIN	90%	12.9%	4	3	49	17	127	0	2.9 +0.1
26 wk2	NE	71%	10.8%	4	2	34	11	43	0	—
26 wk1	ATL	37%	16.2%	6	5	27	10	46	0	—
25 wk19	HOU	46%	3.2%	1	1	4	12	43	0	—
25 wk18	BAL	37%	11.4%	5	5	33	14	66	0	—
25 wk17	CLE	32%	0.0%	0	0	0	12	64	0	—
25 wk16	DET	49%	5.3%	2	2	8	14	143	2	—
25 wk15	MIA	45%	11.1%	3	3	15	12	33	0	—
25 wk14	BAL	50%	9.1%	3	3	49	8	13	1	—
25 wk13	BUF	56%	18.2%	4	2	9	10	35	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 19	37%
5+ receptions	3 of 19	16%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 19	32%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	36.7	4.7	12.7	72.0	0	66%	13.3%
2025	17	2.4	19.8	2.7	13.1	58.9	8	50%	9.2%
2024	16	2.6	20.6	3.2	7.6	32.3	1	46%	12.2%
2023	18	3.5	21.4	4.2	8.7	45.7	4	48%	15.2%
2022	16	1.8	13.4	2.1	4.8	23.7	1	31%	6.4%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jaylen Warren sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PIT room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4