Michael Pittman

Pittsburgh Steelers · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Michael Pittman averaged 4.7 receptions and 46 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.3

1.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.3 projected
26 wk3	CIN	73%	16.1%	5	2	16	0	3.6 -1.6
26 wk1	ATL	88%	8.1%	3	3	58	0	—
25 wk18	HOU	89%	12.1%	4	2	11	0	—
25 wk17	JAX	86%	10.3%	3	2	16	0	—
25 wk16	SF	93%	13.9%	5	4	32	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	93%	19.2%	5	3	26	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	87%	33.3%	12	9	79	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	83%	16.0%	4	1	13	0	—
25 wk12	KC	82%	25.8%	8	5	27	1	—
25 wk10	ATL	81%	7.7%	2	2	19	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	13 of 18	72%
5+ receptions	9 of 18	50%
7+ receptions	4 of 18	22%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 18	39%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 18	6%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 18	39%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	2.5	37.0	4.0	0	80%	12.1%
2025	17	4.7	46.1	6.5	7	86%	20.6%
2024	16	4.3	50.5	6.9	3	88%	25.2%
2023	16	6.8	72.0	9.8	4	92%	30.4%
2022	16	6.2	57.8	8.8	4	97%	26.1%
2021	17	5.2	63.6	7.6	6	88%	26.1%
2020	14	3.2	42.4	5.1	1	79%	14.9%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Pittsburgh Steelers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4