Devaughn Vele

New Orleans Saints · Wide receiverWR2

Over 13 games last season Devaughn Vele averaged 1.9 receptions and 23 yards on 50% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.8

1.9 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

32%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.8 projected
26 wk3	LV	88%	15.0%	6	3	39	0	3.9 -0.9
26 wk2	BAL	96%	21.9%	7	5	64	0	—
26 wk1	DET	91%	17.3%	9	7	69	1	—
25 wk15	CAR	55%	19.4%	6	5	69	0	—
25 wk14	TB	93%	25.0%	5	3	40	0	—
25 wk13	MIA	88%	23.5%	8	8	93	1	—
25 wk12	ATL	89%	16.3%	7	3	37	0	—
25 wk10	CAR	87%	11.5%	3	1	15	0	—
25 wk9	LA	29%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk8	TB	51%	10.0%	5	1	10	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 15	40%
5+ receptions	4 of 15	27%
7+ receptions	2 of 15	13%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 15	27%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 15	7%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 15	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	5.0	57.3	7.3	1	92%	18.1%
2025	13	1.9	22.5	3.0	2	50%	9.2%
2024	14	2.9	33.9	4.1	3	53%	12.3%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Devaughn Vele sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NO room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4