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New Orleans Saints
This is a committee. Chris Olave holds 29.6% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 28 receptions and 267 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave WR1 | 85% | 29.6% | 6.8 | 79 | who benefits |
| Devaughn Vele WR2 | 92% | 18.1% | 3.8 | 47 | who benefits |
| Bryce Lance WR3 | 73% | 6.1% | 2.0 | 23 | — |
| Kevin Austin Jr. WR depth | 9% | 1.0% | 0.4 | 6 | — |
| Barion Brown WR depth | 6% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 1 | — |
| Jalen Moreno-Cropper WR depth | 4% | 0.0% | 0.9 | 1 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson TE1 | 66% | 15.3% | 4.5 | 43 | who benefits |
| Noah Fant TE2 | 47% | 8.5% | 2.4 | 21 | who benefits |
| Oscar Delp TE3 | 16% | 1.6% | 0.6 | 6 | — |
| Treyton Welch TE depth | 9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara RB2 | 30% | 10.6% | 2.6 | 15 | who benefits |
| Travis Etienne RB1 | 50% | 9.5% | 2.5 | 18 | who benefits |
| Kendre Miller RB3 | 24% | 3.8% | 0.8 | 5 | — |
| CJ Donaldson RB depth | 21% | 1.3% | 0.5 | 3 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 28 carries and 109 rushing yards, with Travis Etienne taking 39% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne RB | 10.7 | 42 | 3.98 | 28% |
| Alvin Kamara RB | 9.7 | 37 | 3.75 | 21% |
| Kendre Miller RB | 7.1 | 30 | 4.22 | 25% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.