Travis Etienne

New Orleans Saints · Running backRB1

Over 18 games last season Travis Etienne averaged 2.3 receptions and 19 yards on 60% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.5

0.2 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

10.7

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

28%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5 projected
26 wk3	LV	38%	5.0%	2	2	13	13	57	0	2.5 -0.5
26 wk2	BAL	54%	6.2%	2	2	6	8	25	0	—
26 wk1	DET	59%	17.3%	9	7	32	9	46	0	—
25 wk19	BUF	54%	16.7%	5	5	49	10	67	1	—
25 wk18	TEN	56%	3.2%	1	1	6	14	32	0	—
25 wk17	IND	70%	8.1%	3	2	16	17	76	0	—
25 wk16	DEN	70%	14.3%	5	4	16	16	50	1	—
25 wk15	NYJ	61%	14.3%	4	3	73	12	32	3	—
25 wk14	IND	72%	3.2%	1	1	8	20	74	2	—
25 wk13	TEN	49%	4.0%	1	1	13	12	28	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 20	45%
5+ receptions	3 of 20	15%
7+ receptions	1 of 20	5%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	10 of 20	50%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.7	17.0	4.3	10.0	42.7	0	50%	9.5%
2025	18	2.3	18.9	3.2	15.0	65.2	14	60%	10.1%
2024	15	2.6	16.9	3.5	10.0	37.2	2	54%	11.0%
2023	17	3.4	28.0	4.3	15.7	59.3	12	73%	12.2%
2022	19	2.1	18.2	2.6	13.2	68.2	6	60%	7.6%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Travis Etienne sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NO room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4