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If Noah Fant is out, who gets his targets?

The New Orleans Saints room absorbs +0.46 receptions, and Juwan Johnson takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Noah Fant sitsJuwan Johnson+0.2TE 66% snapsOscar Delp+0.2TE 16% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Chris Olave WR · 85% snaps6.806.80+0.00
Juwan Johnson TE · 66% snaps4.504.73+0.23
Devaughn Vele WR · 92% snaps3.803.80+0.00
Alvin Kamara RB · 30% snaps2.602.60+0.00
Travis Etienne RB · 50% snaps2.502.50+0.00
Noah Fant TE · 47% snaps2.40—OUT
Bryce Lance WR · 73% snaps2.002.00+0.00
Jalen Moreno-Cropper WR · 0% snaps0.900.90+0.00
Kendre Miller RB · 24% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Oscar Delp TE · 16% snaps0.600.83+0.23
CJ Donaldson RB · 21% snaps0.500.50+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Noah Fant’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4