Noah Fant

New Orleans Saints · Tight endTE2

Over 15 games last season Noah Fant averaged 2.3 receptions and 19 yards on 38% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.4

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

37%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4 projected
26 wk3	LV	57%	10.0%	4	4	33	2	2.0 +2.0
26 wk2	BAL	44%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DET	41%	15.4%	8	4	33	1	—
25 wk18	CLE	22%	2.6%	1	1	5	0	—
25 wk17	ARI	22%	3.0%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	BAL	24%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	BUF	42%	5.6%	2	1	15	0	—
25 wk13	BAL	42%	4.5%	2	1	3	0	—
25 wk12	NE	28%	2.9%	1	1	9	0	—
25 wk11	PIT	48%	15.4%	6	5	36	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 17	47%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 17	24%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	22.0	4.0	3	47%	8.5%
2025	15	2.3	19.2	2.7	3	38%	7.9%
2024	14	3.4	35.7	4.6	1	63%	14.5%
2023	17	1.9	24.4	2.5	0	54%	7.6%
2022	18	2.8	27.6	3.6	4	60%	11.4%
2021	16	4.2	41.9	5.6	4	84%	17.8%
2020	15	4.1	44.9	6.2	3	72%	18.8%
2019	16	2.5	35.1	4.1	3	68%	14.0%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Noah Fant sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NO room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4