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Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints · Running backRB2

Over 11 games last season Alvin Kamara averaged 3.0 receptions and 17 yards on 64% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.6
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Rush attempts
9.7
Rushing yards
37
Anytime TD
21%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

11%021%122%218%312%47%54%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.6 projected
26 wk3LV32%2.5%11593602.9 -1.9
26 wk2BAL29%18.8%6579150—
25 wk12ATL14%4.7%2243110—
25 wk10CAR63%11.5%333222830—
25 wk9LA59%12.5%3136140—
25 wk8TB51%4.0%22246210—
25 wk7CHI84%9.7%33111280—
25 wk6NE62%19.2%554510310—
25 wk5NYG56%19.4%64288270—
25 wk4BUF73%20.0%54215700—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1258%
5+ receptions3 of 1225%
7+ receptions0 of 120%
50+ receiving yards0 of 120%
75+ receiving yards0 of 120%
100+ receiving yards0 of 120%
Scored a touchdown1 of 128%

Career by season

Alvin Kamara: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far23.06.03.59.025.5030%10.6%
2025113.016.93.511.942.8164%11.7%
2024144.938.86.416.367.9871%21.3%
2023135.835.86.613.853.4662%18.5%
2022153.832.75.114.959.8470%17.9%
2021133.633.85.218.569.1976%20.3%
2020175.246.66.813.465.62267%20.5%
2019155.937.87.111.954.5769%20.8%
2018175.649.47.212.857.01866%20.8%
2017184.849.96.17.844.11547%18.4%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Alvin Kamara sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NO room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4