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If Alvin Kamara is out, who gets his targets?
The New Orleans Saints room absorbs +0.46 receptions, and Travis Etienne takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave WR · 85% snaps | 6.80 | 6.80 | +0.00 |
| Juwan Johnson TE · 66% snaps | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Devaughn Vele WR · 92% snaps | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Alvin Kamara RB · 30% snaps | 2.60 | — | OUT |
| Travis Etienne RB · 50% snaps | 2.40 | 2.63 | +0.23 |
| Noah Fant TE · 47% snaps | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Bryce Lance WR · 73% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Jalen Moreno-Cropper WR · 0% snaps | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
| Kendre Miller RB · 24% snaps | 0.70 | 0.93 | +0.23 |
| Oscar Delp TE · 16% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Alvin Kamara’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection