Over 16 games last season Chris Olave averaged 6.2 receptions and 73 yards on 84% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 6.8 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
6.8
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
79
Anytime TD
39%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6.8 projected
26 wk3
LV
84%
32.5%
13
9
107
0
6.5 +2.5
26 wk2
BAL
84%
31.2%
10
8
86
1
—
26 wk1
DET
86%
25.0%
13
10
182
0
—
25 wk17
TEN
91%
40.7%
11
8
119
1
—
25 wk16
NYJ
78%
34.0%
16
10
148
2
—
25 wk15
CAR
84%
29.0%
9
6
85
1
—
25 wk14
TB
93%
25.0%
5
3
30
0
—
25 wk13
MIA
88%
20.6%
7
4
47
1
—
25 wk12
ATL
80%
30.2%
13
9
70
0
—
25 wk10
CAR
54%
30.8%
8
5
104
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
18 of 18
100%
5+ receptions
14 of 18
78%
7+ receptions
9 of 18
50%
50+ receiving yards
15 of 18
83%
75+ receiving yards
8 of 18
44%
100+ receiving yards
4 of 18
22%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 18
44%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
9.0
125.0
12.0
1
85%
29.6%
2025
16
6.2
72.7
9.8
9
84%
29.2%
2024
8
4.0
50.0
5.5
1
62%
19.7%
2023
16
5.4
70.2
8.6
5
74%
24.8%
2022
15
4.8
69.5
7.9
4
66%
26.2%
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016