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Treyton Welch

New Orleans Saints · Tight endTE depth

Treyton Welch has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 2 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.2
Receiving yards
-0
Anytime TD
12%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

84%012%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTDWe said
26 wk2BAL7%0—
26 wk1DET11%0—
25 wk18ATL10%0—
25 wk17TEN9%0—
25 wk3SEA5%0—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 5 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 50%
5+ receptions0 of 50%
7+ receptions0 of 50%
50+ receiving yards0 of 50%
75+ receiving yards0 of 50%
100+ receiving yards0 of 50%
Scored a touchdown0 of 50%

Career by season

Treyton Welch: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.009%0.0%
202530.00.00.008%0.0%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4