Bryce Lance has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
2.0
Receiving yards
23
Anytime TD
15%
third-down role (+0.09)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.0 projected
26 wk3
LV
72%
7.5%
3
0
0
0
2.2 -2.2
26 wk2
BAL
79%
3.1%
1
1
8
0
—
26 wk1
DET
69%
7.7%
4
3
42
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Career by season
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.3
16.7
2.7
0
73%
6.1%
1 season of usage, 2026–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016