Kevin Austin Jr.

New Orleans Saints · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 8 games last season Kevin Austin Jr. averaged 1.6 receptions and 18 yards on 44% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.4

1.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

10%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4 projected
26 wk3	LV	14%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.7 -0.7
26 wk2	BAL	7%	3.1%	1	1	7	0	—
26 wk1	DET	6%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	ATL	97%	26.5%	9	4	37	0	—
25 wk17	TEN	81%	18.5%	5	4	52	1	—
25 wk16	NYJ	86%	6.4%	3	2	18	0	—
25 wk15	CAR	38%	16.1%	5	3	33	0	—
25 wk14	TB	3%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	MIA	7%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	ATL	12%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	3 of 10	30%
5+ receptions	0 of 10	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 10	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 10	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 10	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 10	10%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	2.3	0.3	0	9%	1.0%
2025	8	1.6	17.5	2.9	1	44%	8.7%
2024	8	1.4	18.9	2.8	0	66%	9.3%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4