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JJ

Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Juwan Johnson averaged 4.5 receptions and 52 yards on 75% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.5
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
43
Anytime TD
42%
red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

2%07%113%216%316%414%511%68%75%83%92%10111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————4.5 projected
26 wk3LV62%20.0%885323.8 +4.2
26 wk2BAL53%12.5%44660—
26 wk1DET84%13.5%73541—
25 wk18ATL75%14.7%53610—
25 wk17TEN72%14.8%44950—
25 wk16NYJ65%19.1%98890—
25 wk15CAR61%12.9%44300—
25 wk14TB53%20.0%44380—
25 wk13MIA72%26.5%95390—
25 wk12ATL78%16.3%76460—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions17 of 1989%
5+ receptions8 of 1942%
7+ receptions2 of 1911%
50+ receiving yards10 of 1953%
75+ receiving yards5 of 1926%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1921%

Career by season

Juwan Johnson: snap share and target share by season0204060801002020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far35.057.76.3366%15.3%
2025174.552.36.0375%17.7%
2024172.932.23.9364%12.0%
2023132.828.34.5465%13.9%
2022162.631.84.1765%14.7%
2021140.911.41.6427%6.3%
202070.65.61.4038%4.2%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Juwan Johnson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NO room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New Orleans Saints roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4