Tony Pollard

Tennessee Titans · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Tony Pollard averaged 1.9 receptions and 12 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.0

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

12.9

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

17%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0 projected
26 wk3	NYG	53%	11.4%	4	4	22	17	74	0	1.6 +2.4
26 wk2	PHI	55%	5.9%	1	1	1	14	64	0	—
26 wk1	NYJ	52%	7.1%	2	1	-1	7	35	0	—
25 wk18	JAX	63%	9.1%	3	3	17	14	48	0	—
25 wk17	NO	50%	5.7%	2	2	10	18	85	0	—
25 wk16	KC	55%	0.0%	0	0	0	21	102	0	—
25 wk15	SF	53%	7.4%	2	1	8	14	104	1	—
25 wk14	CLE	59%	0.0%	0	0	0	25	161	2	—
25 wk13	JAX	46%	5.7%	2	1	3	10	60	0	—
25 wk12	SEA	51%	13.2%	5	4	21	11	20	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 19	32%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 19	21%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	7.3	2.3	12.7	57.7	0	53%	8.2%
2025	17	1.9	12.1	2.4	14.2	63.6	5	62%	7.6%
2024	16	2.6	14.9	3.6	16.2	67.4	5	68%	12.2%
2023	18	3.4	18.9	4.2	14.8	58.9	7	71%	11.7%
2022	18	2.4	21.9	3.4	11.9	61.4	12	51%	10.3%
2021	16	2.6	21.8	3.0	8.4	45.8	2	35%	7.9%
2020	16	1.8	12.1	2.5	6.3	27.2	5	33%	6.9%
2019	15	1.0	7.1	1.3	5.7	30.3	3	19%	4.1%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tony Pollard sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the TEN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Tennessee Titans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4