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Tennessee Titans
This is a committee. Carnell Tate holds 25.5% of the targets, and the 12 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 202 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate WR1 | 84% | 25.5% | 4.1 | 44 | who benefits |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | 66% | 19.6% | 4.5 | 43 | who benefits |
| Elic Ayomanor WR3 | 62% | 12.3% | 2.6 | 26 | — |
| Calvin Ridley WR depth | 53% | 4.9% | 1.7 | 19 | — |
| Chimere Dike WR depth | 7% | 2.1% | 1.2 | 7 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Helm TE1 | 82% | 13.7% | 3.3 | 24 | who benefits |
| Daniel Bellinger TE2 | 38% | 5.1% | 1.3 | 12 | who benefits |
| David Martin-Robinson TE3 | 8% | 1.3% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears RB2 | 44% | 8.7% | 2.2 | 15 | who benefits |
| Tony Pollard RB1 | 53% | 8.2% | 2.0 | 13 | who benefits |
| Julius Chestnut RB depth | 7% | 0.4% | 0.2 | -1 | — |
| Nicholas Singleton RB3 | 11% | 0.0% | 0.5 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 22 carries and 97 rushing yards, with Tony Pollard taking 58% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard RB | 12.9 | 54 | 4.14 | 17% |
| Nicholas Singleton RB | 4.8 | 20 | 4.23 | — |
| Tyjae Spears RB | 4.6 | 24 | 5.14 | 9% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.