Over 16 games last season Daniel Bellinger averaged 1.2 receptions and 18 yards on 50% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.3 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.3
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
12
Anytime TD
7%
third-down role (+0.11)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.3 projected
26 wk3
NYG
40%
5.7%
2
2
16
0
0.9 +1.1
26 wk2
PHI
45%
5.9%
1
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
NYJ
28%
3.6%
1
1
7
0
—
25 wk18
DAL
92%
6.2%
2
2
38
1
—
25 wk17
LV
97%
10.3%
3
2
11
0
—
25 wk16
MIN
43%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
WAS
26%
11.1%
4
3
35
0
—
25 wk13
NE
36%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
DET
62%
5.9%
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
GB
47%
3.4%
1
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 18
11%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.0
7.7
1.3
0
38%
5.1%
2025
16
1.2
17.9
1.6
2
50%
5.1%
2024
17
0.8
7.4
1.0
0
33%
2.7%
2023
17
1.5
15.0
1.6
0
64%
6.1%
2022
14
2.4
20.6
2.9
4
74%
10.7%
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016