Over 16 games last season Gunnar Helm averaged 2.8 receptions and 22 yards on 53% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.3
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
24
Anytime TD
11%
red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.3 projected
26 wk3
NYG
82%
11.4%
4
2
14
0
3.4 -1.4
26 wk2
PHI
87%
11.8%
2
2
13
0
—
26 wk1
NYJ
76%
17.9%
5
4
28
0
—
25 wk17
NO
58%
5.7%
2
1
1
0
—
25 wk16
KC
71%
11.1%
3
2
9
0
—
25 wk15
SF
49%
14.8%
4
4
49
1
—
25 wk14
CLE
67%
8.0%
2
1
8
0
—
25 wk13
JAX
53%
20.0%
7
6
23
0
—
25 wk12
SEA
63%
18.4%
7
6
51
0
—
25 wk11
HOU
64%
13.9%
5
4
29
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 18
44%
5+ receptions
2 of 18
11%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 18
11%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.7
18.3
3.7
0
82%
13.7%
2025
16
2.8
22.3
3.4
2
53%
10.7%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016