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Calvin Ridley

Tennessee Titans · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 7 games last season Calvin Ridley averaged 2.4 receptions and 43 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.7
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
19
Anytime TD
0%

What a realistic week looks like

25%029%121%213%37%43%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.7 projected
26 wk3NYG33%2.9%10002.3 -2.3
26 wk2PHI62%11.8%22350—
26 wk1NYJ64%0.0%0000—
25 wk11HOU2%2.8%11130—
25 wk6LV10%2.9%11180—
25 wk5ARI66%27.0%1051310—
25 wk4HOU54%13.0%32300—
25 wk3IND87%20.6%71270—
25 wk2LA86%19.4%63570—
25 wk1DEN95%32.0%84270—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 933%
5+ receptions1 of 911%
7+ receptions0 of 90%
50+ receiving yards2 of 922%
75+ receiving yards1 of 911%
100+ receiving yards1 of 911%
Scored a touchdown0 of 90%

Career by season

Calvin Ridley: snap share and target share by season02040608010020182019202020212023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.711.71.0053%4.9%
202572.443.35.1057%16.8%
2024173.859.87.1581%23.8%
2023174.559.88.0885%22.5%
202156.256.210.4286%26.8%
2020156.091.69.5978%25.1%
2019134.866.67.2775%17.5%
2018164.051.35.81061%15.6%

8 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tennessee Titans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4