Elic Ayomanor

Tennessee Titans · Wide receiverWR3

Over 16 games last season Elic Ayomanor averaged 2.6 receptions and 32 yards on 81% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.6

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

16%

red-zone role (+0.10)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6 projected
26 wk3	NYG	80%	8.6%	3	1	11	0	2.2 -1.2
26 wk2	PHI	53%	17.6%	3	2	69	0	—
26 wk1	NYJ	52%	10.7%	3	1	11	1	—
25 wk18	JAX	94%	30.3%	10	3	50	0	—
25 wk17	NO	81%	20.0%	7	4	37	1	—
25 wk16	KC	56%	14.8%	4	3	58	0	—
25 wk15	SF	81%	3.7%	1	1	17	0	—
25 wk14	CLE	80%	12.0%	3	1	14	1	—
25 wk13	JAX	85%	14.3%	5	1	5	0	—
25 wk11	HOU	85%	16.7%	6	2	11	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 18	44%
5+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	5 of 18	28%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 18	28%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	30.3	3.0	1	62%	12.3%
2025	16	2.6	32.2	5.6	4	81%	18.5%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tennessee Titans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4