Tyjae Spears

Tennessee Titans · Running backRB2

Over 13 games last season Tyjae Spears averaged 3.5 receptions and 20 yards on 46% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.2

1.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

4.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2 projected
26 wk3	NYG	47%	0.0%	0	0	0	3	5	0	2.6 -2.6
26 wk2	PHI	36%	11.8%	2	2	29	7	41	0	—
26 wk1	NYJ	50%	14.3%	4	2	12	3	12	0	—
25 wk18	JAX	46%	21.2%	7	7	9	3	18	0	—
25 wk17	NO	53%	5.7%	2	1	-1	6	2	0	—
25 wk16	KC	47%	18.5%	5	5	53	13	52	1	—
25 wk15	SF	42%	7.4%	2	2	2	3	34	0	—
25 wk14	CLE	42%	16.0%	4	2	28	8	19	0	—
25 wk13	JAX	47%	17.1%	6	6	25	2	-1	0	—
25 wk12	SEA	43%	13.2%	5	4	21	3	4	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 15	60%
5+ receptions	4 of 15	27%
7+ receptions	1 of 15	7%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 15	7%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 15	13%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	13.7	2.0	4.3	19.3	0	44%	8.7%
2025	13	3.5	20.3	3.8	5.5	21.8	2	46%	12.3%
2024	12	2.5	18.7	2.9	7.0	26.0	5	43%	9.9%
2023	17	3.1	22.6	4.1	5.9	26.6	3	52%	14.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tyjae Spears sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the TEN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Tennessee Titans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4