Over 17 games last season Julius Chestnut averaged 0.0 receptions and 0 yards on 7% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.2
Receiving yards
-1
Anytime TD
3%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk3
NYG
—
0
0
0
—
26 wk2
PHI
—
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
JAX
—
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
NO
—
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
KC
3%
1
1
0
—
25 wk15
SF
2%
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
CLE
—
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
JAX
—
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
SEA
7%
2
3
0
—
25 wk11
HOU
—
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 18
0%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
Carries/gm
Rush yds/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0%
0.0%
2025
17
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
2.4
0
7%
0.4%
2024
14
0.1
0.8
0.2
1.6
7.3
0
12%
0.7%
2023
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
6%
0.0%
2022
6
0.5
6.8
0.5
1.5
2.0
0
12%
1.3%
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016