George Pickens

Dallas Cowboys · Wide receiverWR2

Over 17 games last season George Pickens averaged 5.5 receptions and 84 yards on 81% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

5.3

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

third-down role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.3 projected
26 wk3	BAL	85%	27.5%	11	7	82	0	5.1 +1.9
26 wk2	WAS	76%	25.8%	8	6	40	0	—
26 wk1	NYG	84%	20.0%	6	3	28	0	—
25 wk18	NYG	45%	13.0%	3	1	9	0	—
25 wk17	WAS	87%	13.9%	5	4	78	0	—
25 wk16	LAC	88%	28.1%	9	7	130	1	—
25 wk15	MIN	86%	17.1%	6	3	33	0	—
25 wk14	DET	84%	19.1%	9	5	37	0	—
25 wk13	KC	74%	35.1%	13	6	88	0	—
25 wk12	PHI	78%	25.7%	9	9	146	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	17 of 19	89%
5+ receptions	12 of 19	63%
7+ receptions	6 of 19	32%
50+ receiving yards	13 of 19	68%
75+ receiving yards	10 of 19	53%
100+ receiving yards	5 of 19	26%
Scored a touchdown	8 of 19	42%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	5.3	50.0	8.3	0	82%	24.4%
2025	17	5.5	84.1	8.1	9	81%	22.5%
2024	15	4.3	65.8	7.2	4	80%	26.2%
2023	18	3.8	66.1	6.5	5	87%	22.8%
2022	17	3.1	47.1	4.9	5	76%	16.0%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If George Pickens sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4