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If George Pickens is out, who gets his targets?

The Dallas Cowboys room absorbs +0.70 receptions, and KaVontae Turpin takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if George Pickens sitsKaVontae Turpin+0.2WR 13% snapsCeeDee Lamb+0.2WR 79% snapsRyan Flournoy+0.2WR 71% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
CeeDee Lamb WR · 79% snaps5.405.63+0.23
George Pickens WR · 82% snaps5.30—OUT
Jake Ferguson TE · 68% snaps3.703.70+0.00
Ryan Flournoy WR · 71% snaps3.103.33+0.23
Javonte Williams RB · 76% snaps2.902.90+0.00
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE · 33% snaps1.101.10+0.00
KaVontae Turpin WR · 13% snaps1.001.24+0.24
Luke Schoonmaker TE · 24% snaps0.700.70+0.00
Tyler Goodson RB · 15% snaps0.600.60+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

George Pickens’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4