Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Derrick Henry averaged 0.9 receptions and 9 yards on 55% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

19.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

56%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk3	DAL	67%	5.0%	1	1	0	26	89	2	1.5 -0.5
26 wk2	NO	53%	10.3%	3	3	19	16	68	1	—
26 wk1	IND	54%	4.2%	1	1	19	24	144	3	—
25 wk18	PIT	71%	5.9%	1	0	0	20	126	0	—
25 wk17	GB	63%	0.0%	0	0	0	36	216	4	—
25 wk16	NE	44%	0.0%	0	0	0	18	128	2	—
25 wk15	CIN	37%	0.0%	0	0	0	11	100	0	—
25 wk14	PIT	54%	6.1%	2	1	8	25	94	0	—
25 wk13	CIN	40%	3.3%	1	1	44	10	60	1	—
25 wk12	NYJ	56%	10.0%	2	2	24	21	64	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 19	11%
5+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	11 of 19	58%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	12.7	1.7	22.0	100.3	6	58%	6.5%
2025	17	0.9	8.8	1.2	18.1	93.8	16	55%	4.9%
2024	19	1.0	10.2	1.3	19.3	115.3	21	58%	5.1%
2023	17	1.6	12.6	2.1	16.5	68.6	12	54%	7.7%
2022	16	2.1	24.9	2.6	21.8	96.1	13	67%	10.3%
2021	9	2.0	17.1	2.2	26.6	111.0	11	70%	6.8%
2020	17	1.3	7.4	2.0	23.3	121.6	17	66%	7.0%
2019	18	1.3	12.6	1.6	21.4	110.3	20	66%	6.5%
2018	16	0.9	6.2	1.1	13.4	66.2	12	41%	4.3%
2017	18	0.9	10.7	1.3	11.7	51.6	7	46%	4.1%
2016	15	0.9	9.1	1.0	7.3	32.7	5	27%	3.6%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Derrick Henry sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4