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If Derrick Henry is out, who gets his targets?
The Baltimore Ravens room absorbs +0.68 receptions, and Justice Hill takes the largest single share at +0.57. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers WR · 31% snaps | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.00 |
| Mark Andrews TE · 65% snaps | 3.40 | 3.43 | +0.03 |
| Rashod Bateman WR · 86% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Derrick Henry RB · 58% snaps | 1.60 | — | OUT |
| Justice Hill RB · 42% snaps | 1.60 | 2.17 | +0.57 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane WR · 40% snaps | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Chris Moore WR · 48% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Hibner TE · 39% snaps | 1.00 | 1.04 | +0.04 |
| LaJohntay Wester WR · 33% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| Devontez Walker WR · 28% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Durham Smythe TE · 57% snaps | 0.70 | 0.74 | +0.04 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Derrick Henry’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection