Chase Brown

Cincinnati Bengals · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Chase Brown averaged 4.1 receptions and 26 yards on 0% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.5

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

15.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

39%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5 projected
26 wk3	PIT	—	5.4%	2	2	8	13	61	0	3.8 -1.8
26 wk2	HOU	—	16.1%	5	3	2	20	80	0	—
26 wk1	TB	—	17.6%	6	5	22	16	56	1	—
25 wk18	CLE	—	15.8%	6	4	18	13	72	1	—
25 wk17	ARI	—	9.1%	3	3	40	22	101	2	—
25 wk16	MIA	—	12.9%	4	4	43	12	66	3	—
25 wk15	BAL	—	19.4%	7	7	37	13	53	0	—
25 wk14	BUF	—	11.1%	4	3	12	12	23	2	—
25 wk13	BAL	—	15.9%	7	7	35	15	78	0	—
25 wk12	NE	—	11.8%	4	2	23	19	107	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	14 of 19	74%
5+ receptions	6 of 19	32%
7+ receptions	4 of 19	21%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 19	37%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	10.7	4.3	16.3	65.7	1	0%	13.1%
2025	17	4.1	25.7	5.2	13.6	59.9	11	0%	14.3%
2024	16	3.4	22.5	4.1	14.3	61.9	11	63%	10.7%
2023	12	1.2	13.0	1.2	3.7	14.9	1	13%	3.9%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Chase Brown sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4