Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers · Wide receiverWR1

Over 11 games last season Christian Watson averaged 3.5 receptions and 59 yards on 69% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.6

1.2 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

56%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.6 projected
26 wk3	ATL	80%	19.6%	10	7	96	0	0	1	4.0 +3.0
26 wk2	NYJ	90%	37.9%	11	4	41	0	0	1	—
26 wk1	MIN	76%	20.0%	8	6	147	0	0	2	—
25 wk19	CHI	80%	18.4%	7	3	36	0	0	1	—
25 wk17	BAL	62%	24.0%	6	5	113	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	CHI	62%	25.0%	6	2	17	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	DEN	41%	13.9%	5	3	29	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	CHI	83%	17.4%	4	4	89	0	0	2	—
25 wk13	DET	73%	34.5%	10	4	80	1	3	1	—
25 wk12	MIN	74%	33.3%	7	5	49	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	10 of 13	77%
5+ receptions	3 of 13	23%
7+ receptions	0 of 13	0%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 13	46%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 13	38%
100+ receiving yards	2 of 13	15%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 13	54%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	5.7	94.7	9.7	4	82%	25.8%
2025	11	3.5	58.8	5.6	7	69%	20.1%
2024	15	1.9	41.3	3.5	2	59%	13.8%
2023	11	2.7	40.2	5.1	5	72%	15.3%
2022	14	2.9	43.6	4.7	9	57%	16.7%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Christian Watson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the GB room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4