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If Christian Watson is out, who gets his targets?
The Green Bay Packers room absorbs +2.82 receptions, and Matthew Golden takes the largest single share at +0.57. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson WR · 82% snaps | 4.60 | — | OUT |
| Tucker Kraft TE · 80% snaps | 3.80 | 3.95 | +0.15 |
| Matthew Golden WR · 83% snaps | 3.50 | 4.07 | +0.57 |
| Jayden Reed WR · 30% snaps | 2.00 | 2.47 | +0.47 |
| J. Michael Sturdivant WR · 24% snaps | 1.50 | 1.97 | +0.47 |
| Skyy Moore WR · 31% snaps | 1.40 | 1.89 | +0.49 |
| Chris Brooks RB · 48% snaps | 1.30 | 1.43 | +0.13 |
| MarShawn Lloyd RB · 31% snaps | 1.20 | 1.33 | +0.13 |
| Jonnu Smith TE · 34% snaps | 1.20 | 1.35 | +0.15 |
| Bo Melton WR · 20% snaps | 0.60 | 0.73 | +0.13 |
| Kaleb Johnson RB · 32% snaps | 0.60 | 0.73 | +0.13 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Christian Watson’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection