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Green Bay Packers
This is a committee. Christian Watson holds 25.8% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 22 receptions and 252 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson WR1 | 82% | 25.8% | 4.6 | 59 | who benefits |
| Matthew Golden WR2 | 83% | 24.7% | 3.6 | 57 | who benefits |
| Jayden Reed WR3 | 30% | 10.5% | 2.0 | 22 | — |
| Skyy Moore WR depth | 31% | 8.9% | 1.4 | 15 | — |
| J. Michael Sturdivant WR depth | 24% | 2.9% | 1.5 | 11 | — |
| Bo Melton WR depth | 20% | 2.6% | 0.6 | 9 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft TE1 | 80% | 13.7% | 3.7 | 42 | who benefits |
| Jonnu Smith TE2 | 34% | 4.5% | 1.1 | 15 | who benefits |
| Josh Whyle TE depth | 9% | 3.7% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
| Mark Redman TE3 | 26% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 2 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd RB1 | 31% | 5.1% | 1.2 | 9 | who benefits |
| Chris Brooks RB3 | 48% | 3.8% | 1.3 | 8 | — |
| Kaleb Johnson RB2 | 32% | 2.0% | 0.6 | 4 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 16 carries and 72 rushing yards, with MarShawn Lloyd taking 50% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd RB | 7.8 | 31 | 3.92 | 25% |
| Kaleb Johnson RB | 4.4 | 21 | 4.69 | 11% |
| Chris Brooks RB | 3.5 | 20 | 5.86 | 13% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.