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Jonnu Smith

Green Bay Packers · Tight endTE2

Over 18 games last season Jonnu Smith averaged 2.2 receptions and 12 yards on 53% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.1
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
10%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

39%031%117%28%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.1 projected
26 wk3ATL33%5.9%32160001.6 +0.4
26 wk2NYJ22%0.0%000000—
26 wk1MIN47%7.5%3250000—
25 wk19HOU53%9.7%32-1000—
25 wk18BAL44%4.5%212120—
25 wk17CLE41%13.5%5518290—
25 wk16DET38%2.6%1002280—
25 wk15MIA29%7.4%22121141—
25 wk14BAL52%3.0%100000—
25 wk13BUF53%9.1%216000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions8 of 2040%
5+ receptions2 of 2010%
7+ receptions0 of 200%
50+ receiving yards1 of 205%
75+ receiving yards0 of 200%
100+ receiving yards0 of 200%
Scored a touchdown3 of 2015%

Career by season

Jonnu Smith: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.322.02.0034%4.5%
2025182.212.33.2353%10.6%
2024175.252.06.5855%19.3%
2023172.934.24.1357%13.0%
2022141.917.52.7048%8.9%
2021171.617.32.6150%9.7%
2020162.728.64.2974%14.9%
2019192.226.22.8474%10.8%
2018131.519.82.3375%8.3%
2017181.29.81.9251%6.4%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jonnu Smith sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the GB room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4