Over 8 games last season Tucker Kraft averaged 4.0 receptions and 61 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.7 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.7
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
19%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.7 projected
26 wk3
ATL
76%
15.7%
8
4
26
0
3.7 +0.3
26 wk2
NYJ
98%
10.3%
3
2
15
0
—
26 wk1
MIN
66%
15.0%
6
3
65
0
—
25 wk9
CAR
49%
8.6%
3
2
20
0
—
25 wk8
PIT
92%
25.7%
9
7
143
2
—
25 wk7
ARI
89%
35.7%
10
5
58
1
—
25 wk6
CIN
92%
7.7%
2
2
43
1
—
25 wk4
DAL
95%
13.9%
5
5
56
0
—
25 wk3
CLE
88%
16.0%
4
3
29
0
—
25 wk2
WAS
91%
25.9%
7
6
124
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 10
60%
5+ receptions
4 of 10
40%
7+ receptions
1 of 10
10%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 10
50%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 10
20%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 10
20%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 10
50%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
3.0
35.3
5.7
0
80%
13.7%
2025
8
4.0
61.1
5.5
6
86%
19.0%
2024
18
3.1
40.7
4.2
7
86%
15.1%
2023
19
1.9
19.9
2.6
3
59%
8.0%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016