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KJ

Kaleb Johnson

Green Bay Packers · Running backRB2

Over 10 games last season Kaleb Johnson averaged 0.1 receptions and 1 yards on 9% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.6
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
4
Rush attempts
4.4
Rushing yards
21
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

63%024%18%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.6 projected
26 wk3ATL36%5.9%31104600.4 +0.6
26 wk2NYJ27%0.0%0008320—
26 wk1MIN—0.0%000000—
25 wk15MIA3%0.0%000240—
25 wk14BAL6%0.0%000240—
25 wk13BUF7%0.0%000230—
25 wk11CIN12%0.0%0005150—
25 wk10LAC8%0.0%000230—
25 wk9IND8%2.9%119140—
25 wk6CLE19%0.0%0006150—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 120%
5+ receptions0 of 120%
7+ receptions0 of 120%
50+ receiving yards0 of 120%
75+ receiving yards0 of 120%
100+ receiving yards0 of 120%
Scored a touchdown0 of 120%

Career by season

Kaleb Johnson: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.33.31.04.012.7032%2.0%
2025100.10.90.22.86.909%0.7%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4