Matthew Golden

Green Bay Packers · Wide receiverWR2

Over 15 games last season Matthew Golden averaged 2.2 receptions and 30 yards on 53% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.6

1.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

30%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.6 projected
26 wk3	ATL	82%	23.5%	12	5	100	0	0	1	3.6 +1.4
26 wk2	NYJ	86%	20.7%	6	4	58	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	MIN	82%	30.0%	12	6	95	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	CHI	49%	13.2%	5	4	84	0	0	1	—
25 wk18	MIN	100%	30.0%	3	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	BAL	53%	12.0%	3	1	12	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CHI	31%	4.2%	1	0	0	2	4	0	—
25 wk15	DEN	35%	11.1%	4	3	55	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	CHI	9%	4.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	NYG	35%	12.0%	3	1	24	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 17	53%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 17	41%
75+ receiving yards	3 of 17	18%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 17	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	5.0	84.3	10.0	1	83%	24.7%
2025	15	2.2	29.7	3.3	1	53%	12.4%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Matthew Golden sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the GB room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4