Chris Brooks

Green Bay Packers · Running backRB3

Over 18 games last season Chris Brooks averaged 0.8 receptions and 6 yards on 20% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.3

0.5 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

3.5

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

13%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3 projected
26 wk3	ATL	41%	2.0%	1	1	4	0	0	0	1.1 -0.1
26 wk2	NYJ	46%	6.9%	2	1	15	4	11	0	—
26 wk1	MIN	56%	2.5%	1	0	0	7	29	0	—
25 wk19	CHI	27%	2.6%	1	1	11	1	16	0	—
25 wk18	MIN	45%	0.0%	0	0	0	13	61	0	—
25 wk17	BAL	45%	8.0%	2	1	11	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CHI	21%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	4	0	—
25 wk15	DEN	26%	5.6%	2	1	6	2	10	0	—
25 wk14	CHI	15%	4.3%	1	1	6	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DET	29%	6.9%	2	2	9	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 20	5%
5+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 20	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	6.3	1.3	3.7	13.3	0	48%	3.8%
2025	18	0.8	5.7	1.0	1.6	6.8	0	20%	3.5%
2024	14	0.9	5.6	1.1	2.6	13.1	1	23%	4.2%
2023	5	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	21.2	0	14%	0.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4