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Bo Melton

Green Bay Packers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 13 games last season Bo Melton averaged 0.3 receptions and 8 yards on 0% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.6
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
3%

What a realistic week looks like

60%026%19%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.6 projected
26 wk3ATL32%2.0%1000000.6 -0.6
26 wk2NYJ15%3.4%100000—
26 wk1MIN12%2.5%1110000—
25 wk18MIN—10.0%100000—
25 wk17BAL—12.0%3134000—
25 wk16CHI—0.0%000000—
25 wk15DEN—2.8%100100—
25 wk14CHI—8.7%2145001—
25 wk13DET—3.4%1002150—
25 wk11NYG—0.0%0001170—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 150%
5+ receptions0 of 150%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards0 of 150%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown1 of 157%

Career by season

Bo Melton: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.33.31.0020%2.6%
2025130.38.21.010%4.0%
2024180.55.91.1024%3.5%
202372.634.93.9240%12.8%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4