MarShawn Lloyd has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.2
Receiving yards
9
Rush attempts
7.8
Rushing yards
31
Anytime TD
25%
red-zone role (+0.07)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.2 projected
26 wk3
ATL
23%
5.9%
3
2
7
4
11
0
1.0 +1.0
26 wk2
NYJ
27%
6.9%
2
2
6
6
20
1
—
26 wk1
MIN
44%
2.5%
1
0
0
13
37
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
Carries/gm
Rush yds/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.3
4.3
2.0
7.7
22.7
1
31%
5.1%
2024
1
1.0
3.0
1.0
6.0
15.0
0
14%
7.7%
2 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016