Jayden Reed

Green Bay Packers · Wide receiverWR3

Over 8 games last season Jayden Reed averaged 2.9 receptions and 31 yards on 45% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.0

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0 projected
26 wk2	NYJ	3%	3.4%	1	1	4	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	MIN	57%	17.5%	7	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	CHI	68%	18.4%	7	4	43	1	14	1	—
25 wk18	MIN	16%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	BAL	51%	16.0%	4	4	41	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CHI	64%	12.5%	3	3	35	1	6	0	—
25 wk15	DEN	65%	16.7%	6	5	55	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	CHI	47%	17.4%	4	4	31	2	22	0	—
25 wk2	WAS	7%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk1	DET	38%	22.7%	5	3	45	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 10	70%
5+ receptions	1 of 10	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 10	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 10	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 10	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 10	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	2.0	12.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0	30%	10.5%
2025	8	2.9	31.2	3.6	0.5	5.2	2	45%	13.0%
2024	18	3.3	50.2	4.4	1.1	9.1	7	63%	16.0%
2023	18	3.8	46.0	5.6	0.7	7.1	10	56%	17.2%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Green Bay Packers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4