Javonte Williams

Dallas Cowboys · Running backRB1

Over 16 games last season Javonte Williams averaged 2.2 receptions and 9 yards on 69% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.9

0.7 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

14.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

44%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.9 projected
26 wk3	BAL	76%	7.5%	3	2	5	19	98	1	2.8 -0.8
26 wk2	WAS	80%	12.9%	4	3	20	12	30	0	—
26 wk1	NYG	71%	16.7%	5	5	31	12	41	2	—
25 wk17	WAS	27%	5.6%	2	0	0	13	54	1	—
25 wk16	LAC	57%	9.4%	3	2	9	9	34	0	—
25 wk15	MIN	29%	0.0%	0	0	0	15	91	1	—
25 wk14	DET	79%	8.5%	4	2	0	17	67	1	—
25 wk13	KC	78%	8.1%	3	3	21	17	59	1	—
25 wk12	PHI	78%	8.6%	3	2	14	20	87	0	—
25 wk11	LV	78%	3.1%	1	1	0	22	93	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 18	39%
5+ receptions	4 of 18	22%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	11 of 18	61%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	18.7	4.0	14.3	56.3	3	76%	12.4%
2025	16	2.2	8.6	3.2	15.8	75.1	13	69%	8.6%
2024	18	3.0	20.0	4.0	8.1	30.1	4	53%	12.5%
2023	16	2.9	14.2	3.6	13.6	48.4	5	48%	13.2%
2022	4	4.0	19.0	5.5	11.8	51.0	0	53%	15.8%
2021	17	2.5	18.6	3.1	11.9	53.1	7	51%	10.4%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Javonte Williams sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4