Puka Nacua

Los Angeles Rams · Wide receiverWR1

Over 19 games last season Puka Nacua averaged 8.1 receptions and 108 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 6.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

6.1

1.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.1 projected
26 wk1	SF	70%	33.3%	9	5	74	0	0	0	—
25 wk21	SEA	79%	41.2%	14	9	165	1	4	1	—
25 wk20	CHI	90%	25.0%	10	5	56	2	6	0	—
25 wk19	CAR	79%	42.9%	18	10	111	3	14	2	—
25 wk18	ARI	69%	29.7%	11	10	76	2	24	1	—
25 wk17	ATL	74%	27.8%	10	5	47	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	SEA	78%	33.3%	16	12	225	0	0	2	—
25 wk15	DET	56%	28.9%	11	9	181	2	8	0	—
25 wk14	ARI	44%	35.5%	11	7	167	0	0	2	—
25 wk13	CAR	73%	33.3%	9	6	72	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	19 of 20	95%
5+ receptions	19 of 20	95%
7+ receptions	14 of 20	70%
50+ receiving yards	18 of 20	90%
75+ receiving yards	14 of 20	70%
100+ receiving yards	8 of 20	40%
Scored a touchdown	11 of 20	55%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	5.0	74.0	9.0	0	70%	33.3%
2025	19	8.1	107.7	10.9	14	71%	31.1%
2024	13	6.9	87.0	9.9	4	72%	32.6%
2023	18	6.3	92.6	9.4	7	87%	28.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Puka Nacua sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4